tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4199 at 14:05, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4199 Southwest Flight history → OAK 14:05 PSP 15:35 34% 7% 0.6% 76%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PSP 11:41DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 5h 41m 98% 92%
AlaskaDetails → OAK 12:01 → PDX 13:44AS 3045 · flown by SkyWest 3h 52m Portland PDX 17:36 → PSP 20:14AS 3022 · flown by SkyWest 8h 13m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest 48m Salt Lake City SLC 20:45 → PSP 21:34DL 4045 · flown by SkyWest 4h 29m 84% 77%
AlaskaDetails → OAK 06:22 → SEA 08:26AS 491 1h 54m Seattle SEA 10:20 → PSP 13:14AS 692 6h 52m 97% 72%
AlaskaDetails → OAK 14:55 → SEA 17:00AS 1464 2h 55m Seattle SEA 19:55 → PSP 22:51AS 3214 · flown by SkyWest 7h 56m 100% 70%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 14:55 → DEN 18:20WN 3044 2h 35m Denver DEN 20:55 → PSP 22:15WN 3830 7h 20m 99% 69%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 09:00 → LAS 10:30WN 2374 2h 05m Las Vegas LAS 12:35 → PSP 13:40WN 2422 4h 40m 100% 63%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 12:15 → LAS 13:50WN 2205 3h 50m Las Vegas LAS 17:40 → PSP 18:40WN 2318 6h 25m 100% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON