Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3073 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 44%.

Safest bet that day WN 3073 OAK 06:20 → SAN 07:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 3076 OAK 14:15 → SAN 15:45 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3073 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 06:20	SAN 07:55	8%	1%	0.7%	100%
WN 3074 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 08:05	SAN 09:40	15%	3%	0.7%	83%
AS 3313 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OAK 10:37	SAN 12:13	27%	10%	0.9%	75%
WN 2780 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 10:10	SAN 11:40	29%	7%	0.7%	33%
AS 3311 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OAK 14:50	SAN 16:26	34%	13%	0.8%	60%
WN 3075 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 12:15	SAN 13:45	34%	9%	0.7%	38%
WN 1926 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 15:45	SAN 17:20	39%	13%	0.7%	35%
WN 4871 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 20:30	SAN 22:05	44%	15%	0.7%	41%
WN 3077 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 18:25	SAN 20:00	44%	16%	0.7%	23%
WN 3076 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 14:15	SAN 15:45	46%	12%	0.7%	46%
AS 2288 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 06:49	SAN 08:25	4%	2%	7.7%	96%
AS 2229 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 20:10	SAN 21:47	46%	6%	2.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON