Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 590 at 18:00, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 590 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 18:00	SBA 19:10	25%	9%	0.8%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	1h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	5h 59m	98%	91%
Alaska Details →	OAK 07:52 → PDX 09:29AS 2298 · flown by Horizon	1h 18m Portland	PDX 10:47 → SBA 13:05AS 2317 · flown by Horizon	5h 13m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest	5h 00m	94%	87%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:00 → LAS 06:30WN 2325	2h 50m Las Vegas	LAS 09:20 → SBA 10:40WN 2336	5h 40m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	OAK 12:15 → LAS 13:50WN 2205	2h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 16:00 → SBA 17:25WN 2002	5h 10m	97%	71%
Southwest Details →	OAK 14:55 → DEN 18:20WN 3044	2h 35m Denver	DEN 20:55 → SBA 22:30WN 3842	7h 35m	99%	70%
Southwest Details →	OAK 16:45 → LAS 18:20WN 4539	3h 50m Las Vegas	LAS 22:10 → SBA 23:35WN 373	6h 50m	100%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON