Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3397 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 3397 OAK 05:05 → SEA 07:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 4747 OAK 17:30 → SEA 19:30 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3397 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 05:05	SEA 07:10	5%	1%	0.6%	92%
AS 491 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 06:22	SEA 08:26	14%	3%	0.7%	92%
WN 3081 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 09:05	SEA 11:05	16%	4%	0.6%	62%
AS 705 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 10:22	SEA 12:26	25%	5%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
AS 1464 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 14:55	SEA 17:00	32%	9%	0.8%	65%
WN 3082 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 21:30	SEA 23:35	38%	15%	0.6%	69%
WN 4747 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 17:30	SEA 19:30	39%	14%	0.6%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON