Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4061 OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest DL 3903 OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4061 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OAK 06:00	SLC 08:55	3%	2%	0.5%	97%
WN 4198 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 09:30	SLC 12:15	7%	2%	0.5%	83%
DL 4134 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OAK 12:30	SLC 15:22	7%	4%	0.5%	93%
DL 3903 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OAK 17:05	SLC 19:57	8%	3%	0.5%	92%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON