Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3084 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3084 OAK 06:45 → SNA 08:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 3088 OAK 16:30 → SNA 17:55 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3084 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 06:45	SNA 08:10	4%	1%	0.6%	95%
WN 4927 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 08:30	SNA 10:00	8%	2%	0.6%	86%
WN 1240 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 10:00	SNA 11:25	14%	3%	0.6%	76%
WN 3086 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 12:05	SNA 13:35	15%	4%	0.6%	86%
WN 4953 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 20:30	SNA 22:05	20%	4%	0.7%	79%
WN 3087 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 13:55	SNA 15:25	24%	5%	0.6%	76%
WN 3089 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 18:35	SNA 20:05	26%	5%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
WN 3088 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 16:30	SNA 17:55	28%	6%	0.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON