Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via LAX, leaving 13:14, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 116 American Flight history →	OGG 17:46	DFW 06:00	21%	7%	0.9%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 5 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	3h 41m San Francisco	SFO 18:50 → DFW 00:37 +1UA 2478	12h 27m	98%	78%
American Details →	OGG 13:14 → LAX 21:40AA 254	2h 08m Los Angeles	LAX 23:48 → DFW 05:01 +1AA 3136	10h 47m	96%	71%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	2h 14m Seattle	SEA 17:56 → DFW 23:59AS 424	11h 59m	98%	67%
Alaska Details →	OGG 12:55 → SEA 21:25AS 930	1h 38m Seattle	SEA 23:03 → DFW 05:02 +1AS 542	11h 07m	89%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON