Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 27 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3091 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 3091 OGG 06:00 → HNL 06:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AS 1125 OGG 13:03 → HNL 13:46 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3091 Southwest Flight history →	OGG 06:00	HNL 06:45	3%	1%	0.8%	98%
WN 3092 Southwest Flight history →	OGG 07:25	HNL 08:10	3%	1%	0.9%	100%
WN 3093 Southwest Flight history →	OGG 09:55	HNL 10:40	6%	1%	0.7%	93%
AS 1005 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 06:00	HNL 06:40	7%	2%	1.7%	94%
AS 1025 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 07:15	HNL 07:54	10%	2%	1.9%	88%
WN 3098 Southwest Flight history →	OGG 19:00	HNL 19:45	11%	2%	1.0%	96%
WN 3094 Southwest Flight history →	OGG 12:00	HNL 12:50	11%	2%	0.8%	91%
WN 3097 Southwest Flight history →	OGG 17:30	HNL 18:15	11%	3%	0.7%	91%
WN 3096 Southwest Flight history →	OGG 15:45	HNL 16:30	11%	2%	0.7%	98%
AS 1035 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 08:15	HNL 08:54	13%	2%	1.9%	90%
WN 676 Southwest Flight history →	OGG 14:15	HNL 15:00	14%	2%	0.8%	90%
AS 1045 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 08:41	HNL 09:20	17%	2%	1.9%	87%
AS 1055 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 09:18	HNL 09:58	17%	2%	1.6%	91%
AS 1065 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 09:45	HNL 10:27	20%	2%	1.6%	82%
AS 1085 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:30	HNL 11:12	22%	3%	1.4%	84%
AS 1075 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:06	HNL 10:48	22%	3%	1.6%	80%
AS 1105 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 11:27	HNL 12:09	22%	4%	1.7%	84%
AS 1115 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 11:57	HNL 12:40	23%	4%	1.6%	83%
AS 1185 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 19:43	HNL 20:22	23%	5%	1.8%	74%
AS 1165 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 17:59	HNL 18:38	24%	5%	1.1%	65%
AS 1175 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 18:58	HNL 19:37	25%	5%	1.5%	69%
AS 1095 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:52	HNL 11:34	25%	3%	1.7%	77%
AS 1195 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 20:47	HNL 21:26	26%	5%	1.3%	73%
AS 1145 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:04	HNL 15:45	26%	5%	1.6%	65%
AS 1135 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 14:00	HNL 14:42	29%	6%	1.7%	67%
AS 1155 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 16:51	HNL 17:30	30%	8%	1.8%	68%
AS 1125 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 13:03	HNL 13:46	31%	6%	1.5%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON