Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 1129 at 17:39, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1129 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 17:39	ITO 18:17	29%	8%	1.0%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hilo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OGG 06:00 → HNL 06:45WN 3091	2h 10m Honolulu	HNL 08:55 → ITO 09:55WN 1903	3h 55m	100%	93%
Southwest Details →	OGG 17:30 → HNL 18:15WN 3097	2h 30m Honolulu	HNL 20:45 → ITO 21:50WN 1907	4h 20m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	OGG 09:55 → HNL 10:40WN 3093	2h 50m Honolulu	HNL 13:30 → ITO 14:30WN 648	4h 35m	100%	82%
Alaska Details →	OGG 06:00 → HNL 06:40AS 1005	1h 20m Honolulu	HNL 08:00 → ITO 08:54AS 1022	2h 54m	96%	81%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:15 → HNL 07:54AS 1025	2h 07m Honolulu	HNL 10:01 → ITO 10:55AS 1032	3h 40m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	OGG 14:15 → HNL 15:00WN 676	2h 10m Honolulu	HNL 17:10 → ITO 18:10WN 1906	3h 55m	95%	77%
Alaska Details →	OGG 09:45 → HNL 10:27AS 1065	3h 04m Honolulu	HNL 13:31 → ITO 14:27AS 1062	4h 42m	100%	71%
Alaska Details →	OGG 10:06 → HNL 10:48AS 1075	3h 29m Honolulu	HNL 14:17 → ITO 15:13AS 1072	5h 07m	99%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OGG 15:04 → HNL 15:45AS 1145	48m Honolulu	HNL 16:33 → ITO 17:27AS 1092	2h 23m	56%	39%
Alaska Details →	OGG 11:57 → HNL 12:40AS 1115	51m Honolulu	HNL 13:31 → ITO 14:27AS 1062	2h 30m	49%	35%
Alaska Details →	OGG 16:51 → HNL 17:30AS 1155	48m Honolulu	HNL 18:18 → ITO 19:12AS 1102	2h 21m	39%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON