tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Honolulu, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 139 Southwest Flight history → OGG 20:35 LAS 05:10 8% 2% 0.6% 100%
AS 932 Alaska Flight history → OGG 10:36 LAS 19:10 21% 5% 1.0% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → OGG 06:00 → HNL 06:45WN 3091 1h 15m Honolulu HNL 08:00 → LAS 16:50WN 1913 7h 50m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → OGG 17:30 → HNL 18:15WN 3097 2h 40m Honolulu HNL 20:55 → LAS 05:45 +1WN 1915 9h 15m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → OGG 07:25 → HNL 08:10WN 3092 3h 45m Honolulu HNL 11:55 → LAS 20:45WN 1914 10h 20m 100% 87%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 18:58 → HNL 19:37AS 1175 3h 43m Honolulu HNL 23:20 → LAS 08:03 +1AS 808 10h 05m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → OGG 13:04 → LAX 21:21UA 418 1h 38m Los Angeles LAX 22:59 → LAS 00:21 +1UA 2315 8h 17m 95% 72%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 06:00 → HNL 06:40AS 1005 1h 15m Honolulu HNL 07:55 → LAS 16:39AS 806 7h 39m 96% 71%
UnitedDetails → OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958 2h 28m San Francisco SFO 17:37 → LAS 19:27UA 751 9h 17m 98% 68%
UnitedDetails → OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726 3h 00m San Francisco SFO 22:59 → LAS 00:46 +1UA 2839 9h 46m 99% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON