Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2220 at 21:59 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2220 OGG 21:59 → LAX 06:16 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 845 OGG 13:49 → LAX 22:01 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2220 United Flight history →	OGG 21:59	LAX 06:16	11%	4%	0.7%	95%
DL 476 Delta Flight history →	OGG 22:15	LAX 06:33	12%	7%	0.9%	92%
AA 14 American Flight history →	OGG 21:45	LAX 06:08	14%	6%	0.7%	89%
DL 463 Delta Flight history →	OGG 13:05	LAX 21:30	15%	4%	0.8%	80%
UA 627 United Flight history →	OGG 14:58	LAX 23:15	17%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 254 American Flight history →	OGG 13:14	LAX 21:40	17%	5%	0.6%	81%
UA 418 United Flight history →	OGG 13:04	LAX 21:21	17%	4%	0.6%	92%
AS 934 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:00	LAX 23:07	27%	8%	0.7%	63%
AS 845 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 13:49	LAX 22:01	30%	7%	0.7%	50%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	OGG 19:00 → HNL 19:45WN 3098	1h 05m Honolulu	HNL 20:50 → LAX 05:15 +1WN 4082	7h 15m	95%	83%
Alaska Details →	OGG 06:00 → HNL 06:40AS 1005	1h 20m Honolulu	HNL 08:00 → LAX 16:20AS 810	7h 20m	96%	71%
United Details →	OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726	56m San Francisco	SFO 20:55 → LAX 22:37UA 2850	7h 37m	85%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON