Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Honolulu, leaving 09:55, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Long Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 972 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 12:11	LGB 20:16	12%	4%	0.7%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OGG 07:25 → HNL 08:10WN 3092	3h 55m Honolulu	HNL 12:05 → LGB 20:30WN 4971	10h 05m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	OGG 10:00 → OAK 17:55WN 3089	1h 25m Oakland	OAK 19:20 → LGB 20:50WN 3057	7h 50m	100%	76%
Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	3h 05m Honolulu	HNL 12:25 → LGB 20:46AS 870	9h 05m	100%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OGG 10:52 → HNL 11:34AS 1095	51m Honolulu	HNL 12:25 → LGB 20:46AS 870	6h 54m	58%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON