Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 10:06, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Oakland on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3089 Southwest Flight history →	OGG 10:00	OAK 17:55	10%	3%	0.6%	97%
AS 924 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 13:02	OAK 21:00	19%	6%	0.7%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OGG 17:30 → HNL 18:15WN 3097	3h 15m Honolulu	HNL 21:30 → OAK 05:35 +1WN 1928	9h 05m	100%	88%
Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	2h 55m Honolulu	HNL 12:15 → OAK 20:25AS 848	8h 44m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	1h 43m Seattle	SEA 17:25 → OAK 19:33AS 706	9h 33m	95%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON