Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 46% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 1490 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 11:01	PDX 19:27	13%	4%	0.7%	86%
AS 558 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 21:10	PDX 05:32	16%	3%	1.0%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	3h 40m Seattle	SEA 19:22 → PDX 20:17AS 2372 · flown by Horizon	10h 17m	100%	81%
United Details →	OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726	2h 53m San Francisco	SFO 22:52 → PDX 00:50 +1UA 2384	9h 50m	99%	80%
Alaska Details →	OGG 06:00 → HNL 06:40AS 1005	1h 05m Honolulu	HNL 07:45 → PDX 16:17AS 840	7h 17m	95%	80%
Alaska Details →	OGG 17:59 → HNL 18:38AS 1165	3h 01m Honolulu	HNL 21:39 → PDX 06:11 +1AS 880	9h 12m	100%	79%
United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	3h 47m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → PDX 20:54UA 2262	10h 44m	98%	77%
Alaska Details →	OGG 12:55 → SEA 21:25AS 930	2h 01m Seattle	SEA 23:26 → PDX 00:22 +1AS 2377 · flown by Horizon	8h 27m	93%	75%
Southwest Details →	OGG 10:50 → SMF 18:50WN 3105	3h 00m Sacramento	SMF 21:50 → PDX 23:25WN 309	9h 35m	100%	73%
Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	3h 02m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	9h 09m	100%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OGG 12:55 → SEA 21:25AS 930	1h 04m Seattle	SEA 22:29 → PDX 23:30AS 1457	7h 35m	71%	45%
Alaska Details →	OGG 10:52 → HNL 11:34AS 1095	48m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	6h 58m	46%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON