Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 672 OGG 20:25 → PHX 05:10 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 432 OGG 21:17 → PHX 06:00 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 672 Southwest Flight history →	OGG 20:25	PHX 05:10	7%	2%	0.6%	100%
AA 848 American Flight history →	OGG 22:54	PHX 07:37	13%	6%	0.7%	76%
AA 432 American Flight history →	OGG 21:17	PHX 06:00	13%	6%	0.8%	94%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	OGG 19:00 → HNL 19:45WN 3098	1h 15m Honolulu	HNL 21:00 → PHX 05:55 +1WN 2277	7h 55m	95%	84%
Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	1h 50m Honolulu	HNL 11:10 → PHX 20:08AS 836	8h 27m	99%	78%
United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	1h 16m San Francisco	SFO 16:25 → PHX 18:39UA 574	8h 29m	98%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON