Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2356 at 20:55 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 2356 OGG 20:55 → SAN 05:10 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AS 203 OGG 12:22 → SAN 20:43 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2356 Southwest Flight history →	OGG 20:55	SAN 05:10	15%	4%	0.7%	98%worse than usual
AS 484 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 23:03	SAN 07:20	25%	7%	1.3%	76%
AS 203 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 12:22	SAN 20:43	31%	7%	1.2%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	OGG 06:00 → HNL 06:45WN 3091	1h 25m Honolulu	HNL 08:10 → SAN 16:35WN 1938	7h 35m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	OGG 19:00 → HNL 19:45WN 3098	1h 40m Honolulu	HNL 21:25 → SAN 05:50 +1WN 512	7h 50m	95%	77%
United Details →	OGG 13:04 → LAX 21:21UA 418	1h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 22:56 → SAN 23:54UA 594	7h 50m	95%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON