Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 246 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day AS 246 OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 930 OGG 12:55 → SEA 21:25 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 246 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 07:00	SEA 15:42	10%	3%	1.1%	93%
DL 394 Delta Flight history →	OGG 21:15	SEA 05:54	13%	5%	1.0%	96%
AS 206 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 21:40	SEA 06:17	22%	5%	1.2%	82%
AS 244 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:15	SEA 23:59	29%	9%	1.0%	85%worse than usual
AS 930 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 12:55	SEA 21:25	32%	8%	1.0%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	OGG 18:58 → HNL 19:37AS 1175	1h 43m Honolulu	HNL 21:20 → SEA 05:59 +1AS 122	8h 01m	96%	73%
Alaska Details →	OGG 20:47 → HNL 21:26AS 1195	1h 54m Honolulu	HNL 23:20 → SEA 08:00 +1AS 900	8h 13m	96%	69%
Alaska Details →	OGG 13:03 → HNL 13:46AS 1125	1h 21m Honolulu	HNL 15:07 → SEA 23:59AS 90	7h 56m	89%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON