Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1958 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10%.

Safest bet that day UA 1958 OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 628 OGG 13:49 → SFO 21:48 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1958 United Flight history →	OGG 07:10	SFO 15:09	6%	3%	0.9%	97%
UA 1750 United Flight history →	OGG 21:55	SFO 05:54	10%	4%	0.8%	96%
UA 1125 United Flight history →	OGG 22:55	SFO 06:54	10%	4%	0.7%	94%
UA 1726 United Flight history →	OGG 12:00	SFO 19:59	13%	5%	0.7%	85%
AS 978 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:32	SFO 18:27	16%	5%	0.7%	92%
UA 628 United Flight history →	OGG 13:49	SFO 21:48	17%	5%	0.7%	80%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	OGG 10:06 → HNL 10:48AS 1075	1h 32m Honolulu	HNL 12:20 → SFO 20:28AS 812	7h 22m	94%	60%
Alaska Details →	OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140	1h 01m Kailua/Kona	KOA 15:40 → SFO 23:48AS 404	6h 45m	77%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON