tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 10:30, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3104 Southwest Flight history → OGG 12:35 SJC 20:25 11% 5% 0.6% 90%
AS 954 Alaska Flight history → OGG 12:07 SJC 20:03 18% 7% 0.7% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → OGG 06:00 → HNL 06:45WN 3091 1h 30m Honolulu HNL 08:15 → SJC 16:20WN 1940 7h 20m 100% 94%
SouthwestDetails → OGG 07:25 → HNL 08:10WN 3092 2h 50m Honolulu HNL 11:00 → SJC 19:00WN 4994 8h 35m 100% 87%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 11:01 → PDX 19:27AS 1490 2h 03m Portland PDX 21:30 → SJC 23:21AS 678 9h 20m 98% 83%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246 2h 03m Seattle SEA 17:45 → SJC 20:00AS 539 10h 00m 97% 67%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045 3h 10m Honolulu HNL 12:30 → SJC 20:40AS 1411 8h 59m 100% 66%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 12:22 → SAN 20:43AS 203 1h 42m San Diego SAN 22:25 → SJC 23:55AS 1624 8h 33m 89% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → OGG 10:52 → HNL 11:34AS 1095 56m Honolulu HNL 12:30 → SJC 20:40AS 1411 6h 48m 59% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON