Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 08:41, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 397 Delta Flight history →	OGG 20:08	SLC 06:00	11%	4%	1.4%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 4 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 07:15 → HNL 07:54AS 1025	3h 16m Honolulu	HNL 11:10 → SLC 21:16AS 1417	10h 01m	100%	79%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	3h 25m Seattle	SEA 19:07 → SLC 22:14AS 3298 · flown by SkyWest	11h 14m	100%	72%
United Details →	OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726	55m San Francisco	SFO 20:54 → SLC 23:59UA 5753 · flown by SkyWest	7h 59m	85%	67%
United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	1h 02m San Francisco	SFO 16:11 → SLC 19:11UA 543	8h 01m	94%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON