Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via SFO, leaving 13:49, is the safest bet: 62% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3105 Southwest Flight history →	OGG 10:50	SMF 18:50	14%	4%	0.6%	95%
AS 960 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 11:27	SMF 19:27	21%	7%	0.9%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OGG 07:25 → HNL 08:10WN 3092	2h 50m Honolulu	HNL 11:00 → SMF 19:10WN 1942	8h 45m	100%	86%
United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	1h 59m San Francisco	SFO 17:08 → SMF 18:16UA 5796 · flown by SkyWest	8h 06m	98%	71%
United Details →	OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726	2h 55m San Francisco	SFO 22:54 → SMF 23:59UA 1302	8h 59m	99%	70%
Alaska Details →	OGG 09:45 → HNL 10:27AS 1065	3h 33m Honolulu	HNL 14:00 → SMF 22:09AS 820	9h 24m	100%	67%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	3h 41m Seattle	SEA 19:23 → SMF 21:16AS 638	11h 16m	100%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OGG 12:22 → SAN 20:43AS 203	1h 04m San Diego	SAN 21:47 → SMF 23:32AS 1621	8h 10m	72%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON