tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 295 at 10:25, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 295 Southwest Flight history → OKC 10:25 AUS 11:40 18% 4% 0.6% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → OKC 07:05 → PHX 07:25WN 4201 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 08:25 → AUS 12:45WN 4744 5h 40m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → OKC 05:45 → DAL 06:40WN 3109 2h 20m Dallas DAL 09:00 → AUS 10:00WN 4172 4h 15m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m Denver DEN 08:00 → AUS 11:15UA 456 5h 10m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 6h 36m 98% 84%
SouthwestDetails → OKC 06:50 → HOU 08:20WN 4767 1h 05m Houston HOU 09:25 → AUS 10:20WN 270 3h 30m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07AA 656 1h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:41 → AUS 08:52AA 4992 · flown by SkyWest 3h 51m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → OKC 08:25 → DFW 09:44AA 6203 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → AUS 13:25AA 4095 · flown by Envoy 5h 00m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:00 → ATL 10:10DL 1158 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104 6h 54m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → OKC 15:04 → DFW 16:17AA 5362 · flown by PSA 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:17 → AUS 18:24AA 3402 · flown by Envoy 3h 20m 73% 57%
SouthwestDetails → OKC 06:20 → LAS 06:50WN 392 50m Las Vegas LAS 07:40 → AUS 12:25WN 1864 6h 05m 61% 54%
SouthwestDetails → OKC 14:00 → MCO 17:45WN 3120 55m Orlando MCO 18:40 → AUS 20:30WN 4402 6h 30m 69% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON