tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3107 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3107 Southwest Flight history → OKC 07:35 BNA 09:20 7% 2% 0.5% 98%
WN 3108 Southwest Flight history → OKC 16:15 BNA 18:00 25% 7% 0.5% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 41m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m Denver DEN 08:00 → BNA 11:42UA 605 5h 37m 95% 88%
SouthwestDetails → OKC 05:45 → DAL 06:40WN 3109 1h 40m Dallas DAL 08:20 → BNA 10:10WN 434 4h 25m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → OKC 07:10 → ORD 09:37UA 5364 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Chicago ORD 12:29 → BNA 14:14UA 3634 · flown by Republic 7h 04m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → OKC 07:00 → IAH 08:28UA 1127 3h 27m Houston IAH 11:55 → BNA 14:02UA 1318 7h 02m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:45 → MSP 09:58DL 3844 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → BNA 14:52DL 2843 7h 07m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07AA 656 1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:25 → BNA 09:26AA 3397 · flown by Envoy 4h 25m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → OKC 05:04 → IAH 06:40UA 5453 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Houston IAH 07:40 → BNA 09:47UA 2174 4h 43m 93% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → OKC 12:40 → ORD 15:00UA 5621 · flown by SkyWest 49m Chicago ORD 15:49 → BNA 17:40UA 5665 · flown by SkyWest 5h 00m 65% 51%
AmericanDetails → OKC 16:51 → DCA 20:59AA 5138 · flown by PSA 1h 01m Washington DCA 22:00 → BNA 23:05AA 5513 · flown by PSA 6h 14m 72% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON