Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2273 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2273 OKC 06:40 → CLT 10:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3299 OKC 17:44 → CLT 21:25 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2273 American Flight history →	OKC 06:40	CLT 10:20	7%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 2220 American Flight history →	OKC 13:45	CLT 17:28	16%	5%	0.7%	79%
AA 3299 American Flight history →	OKC 17:44	CLT 21:25	20%	7%	0.8%	63%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	OKC 07:35 → BNA 09:20WN 3107	50m Nashville	BNA 10:10 → CLT 12:35WN 477	4h 00m	80%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON