tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3010 Southwest Flight history → OKC 11:25 DCA 15:10 20% 6% 0.6% 73%
AA 5138 American flown by PSA Flight history → OKC 16:51 DCA 20:59 29% 12% 1.4% 56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → OKC 05:00 → MDW 06:55WN 3121 1h 20m Chicago MDW 08:15 → DCA 11:10WN 2569 5h 10m 100% 92%
UnitedDetails → OKC 05:04 → IAH 06:40UA 5453 · flown by SkyWest 1h 06m Houston IAH 07:46 → DCA 11:56UA 2047 5h 52m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 7h 54m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07AA 656 2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177 6h 41m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → OKC 07:00 → IAH 08:28UA 1127 3h 27m Houston IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654 8h 03m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:42DL 737 5h 53m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → OKC 14:33 → IAH 16:10UA 4838 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 40m Houston IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224 8h 26m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → OKC 06:00 → DFW 07:13AA 2272 2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:57 → DCA 13:59AA 1624 6h 59m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → OKC 15:04 → DFW 16:17AA 5362 · flown by PSA 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:15 → DCA 21:31AA 472 5h 27m 73% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON