Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3111 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3111 OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 1863 OKC 15:44 → DEN 16:38 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3111 Southwest Flight history →	OKC 06:05	DEN 06:45	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 4751 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 06:05	DEN 06:58	6%	5%	0.6%	94%
UA 5582 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 18:46	DEN 20:08	13%	7%	0.6%	71%
UA 5490 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 11:30	DEN 12:28	14%	7%	0.6%	86%
UA 4768 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 16:56	DEN 18:20	16%	8%	0.6%	72%
WN 3112 Southwest Flight history →	OKC 09:30	DEN 10:10	16%	3%	0.5%	76%
UA 1424 United Flight history →	OKC 09:15	DEN 10:01	18%	6%	0.6%	74%
WN 3113 Southwest Flight history →	OKC 13:00	DEN 13:35	20%	3%	0.5%	68%
WN 1188 Southwest Flight history →	OKC 19:10	DEN 20:05	26%	6%	0.6%	61%
F9 1863 Frontier Flight history →	OKC 15:44	DEN 16:38	27%	10%	0.8%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON