Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 656 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 656 OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 5362 OKC 15:04 → DFW 16:17 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 656 American Flight history →	OKC 05:01	DFW 06:07	6%	4%	0.9%	92%
AA 2272 American Flight history →	OKC 06:00	DFW 07:13	7%	5%	0.9%	86%
AA 3805 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OKC 11:10	DFW 12:18	12%	4%	0.9%	93%
AA 6203 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 08:25	DFW 09:44	13%	7%	0.7%	86%
AA 3731 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OKC 12:26	DFW 13:34	14%	4%	0.9%	88%
AA 3727 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OKC 20:20	DFW 21:30	16%	6%	0.9%	70%
AA 3729 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OKC 19:15	DFW 20:25	17%	6%	0.9%	71%
AA 3535 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OKC 18:02	DFW 19:15	18%	5%	0.9%	88%
AA 3730 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OKC 16:38	DFW 17:49	21%	6%	0.9%	61%
AA 5362 American flown by PSA Flight history →	OKC 15:04	DFW 16:17	27%	10%	1.0%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON