tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via Phoenix, leaving 15:20, is the safest bet: 55% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4895 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → OKC 07:26 LAX 08:50 11% 5% 0.7% 96%
AA 6272 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → OKC 14:22 LAX 15:39 14% 6% 0.7% 97%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:45 → MSP 09:58DL 3844 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 13:02 → LAX 14:54DL 1651 9h 09m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → OKC 09:39 → IAH 11:15UA 6255 · flown by Mesa 3h 39m Houston IAH 14:54 → LAX 16:27UA 1951 8h 48m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → OKC 05:04 → IAH 06:40UA 5453 · flown by SkyWest 3h 13m Houston IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469 8h 26m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 7h 29m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:00 → ATL 10:10DL 1158 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 9h 12m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → OKC 09:15 → DEN 10:01UA 1424 1h 44m Denver DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013 6h 02m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 11:35 → LAX 13:05DL 326 9h 16m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → OKC 08:26 → SLC 10:07DL 4029 · flown by SkyWest 1h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 6h 01m 97% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → OKC 19:10 → DEN 20:05WN 1188 1h 05m Denver DEN 21:10 → LAX 22:45WN 3110 5h 35m 74% 52%
UnitedDetails → OKC 12:40 → ORD 15:00UA 5621 · flown by SkyWest 47m Chicago ORD 15:47 → LAX 18:20UA 576 7h 40m 61% 49%
SouthwestDetails → OKC 20:50 → LAS 21:25WN 3119 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 22:25 → LAX 23:45WN 1056 4h 55m 71% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON