tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3120 at 14:00, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3120 Southwest Flight history → OKC 14:00 MCO 17:45 23% 9% 16.7% 61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → OKC 05:45 → DAL 06:40WN 3109 2h 30m Dallas DAL 09:10 → MCO 12:50WN 1725 6h 05m 100% 75%
SouthwestDetails → OKC 05:00 → MDW 06:55WN 3121 1h 05m Chicago MDW 08:00 → MCO 11:35WN 2817 5h 35m 96% 73%
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Denver DEN 08:10 → MCO 13:57UA 2292 6h 52m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 5h 11m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → OKC 05:04 → IAH 06:40UA 5453 · flown by SkyWest 2h 50m Houston IAH 09:30 → MCO 13:00UA 2310 6h 56m 99% 70%
SouthwestDetails → OKC 07:35 → BNA 09:20WN 3107 55m Nashville BNA 10:15 → MCO 13:10WN 568 4h 35m 93% 69%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:45 → MSP 09:58DL 3844 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MCO 17:04DL 2225 8h 19m 99% 69%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:00 → ATL 10:10DL 1158 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030 5h 00m 97% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → OKC 21:45 → PHX 22:00WN 3125 1h 05m Phoenix PHX 23:05 → MCO 06:20 +1WN 4508 7h 35m 68% 50%
AmericanDetails → OKC 15:04 → DFW 16:17AA 5362 · flown by PSA 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:18 → MCO 21:10AA 2974 5h 06m 73% 40%
SouthwestDetails → OKC 16:40 → DAL 17:45WN 1303 50m Dallas DAL 18:35 → MCO 22:15WN 463 4h 35m 70% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON