tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3121 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3121 Southwest Flight history → OKC 05:00 MDW 06:55 4% 2% 0.7% 98%
WN 3123 Southwest Flight history → OKC 15:50 MDW 17:40 17% 5% 0.7% 54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → OKC 06:20 → LAS 06:50WN 392 1h 30m Las Vegas LAS 08:20 → MDW 13:55WN 2271 7h 35m 100% 90%
SouthwestDetails → OKC 05:45 → DAL 06:40WN 3109 1h 50m Dallas DAL 08:30 → MDW 10:45WN 1356 5h 00m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:45WN 3111 3h 15m Denver DEN 10:00 → MDW 13:25WN 755 7h 20m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417 6h 07m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → OKC 07:35 → BNA 09:20WN 3107 1h 25m Nashville BNA 10:45 → MDW 12:20WN 575 4h 45m 93% 84%
SouthwestDetails → OKC 07:05 → PHX 07:25WN 4201 2h 35m Phoenix PHX 10:00 → MDW 15:15WN 4066 8h 10m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → OKC 10:25 → AUS 11:40WN 295 1h 45m Austin AUS 13:25 → MDW 15:55WN 359 5h 30m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → OKC 09:30 → DEN 10:10WN 3112 2h 50m Denver DEN 13:00 → MDW 16:20WN 1601 6h 50m 100% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → OKC 18:10 → HOU 19:40WN 3117 55m Houston HOU 20:35 → MDW 23:05WN 2044 4h 55m 71% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON