tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3679 at 06:15, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3679 American flown by Envoy Flight history → OKC 06:15 MIA 10:23 12% 5% 1.0% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → OKC 05:00 → MDW 06:55WN 3121 1h 05m Chicago MDW 08:00 → MIA 12:00WN 2464 6h 00m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 6h 13m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07AA 656 1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:10 → MIA 11:11AA 3290 5h 10m 95% 74%
UnitedDetails → OKC 07:00 → IAH 08:28UA 1127 3h 32m Houston IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410 7h 47m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:00 → ATL 10:10DL 1158 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 12:52 → MIA 14:55DL 1579 6h 55m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → OKC 06:40 → CLT 10:20AA 2273 3h 10m Charlotte CLT 13:30 → MIA 15:38AA 2912 7h 58m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → OKC 17:07 → ATL 20:29DL 2862 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 6h 48m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 3h 11m Denver DEN 10:09 → MIA 16:16UA 1496 9h 11m 99% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → OKC 18:02 → DFW 19:15AA 3535 · flown by Envoy 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:05 → MIA 23:56AA 2823 4h 54m 64% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON