Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 3844 at 07:45, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3844 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 07:45	MSP 09:58	6%	4%	0.5%	89%
DL 5142 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	OKC 11:57	MSP 14:03	24%	9%	0.0%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OKC 05:00 → MDW 06:55WN 3121	3h 20m Chicago	MDW 10:15 → MSP 11:45WN 2869	6h 45m	100%	90%
United Details →	OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest	2h 37m Denver	DEN 09:35 → MSP 12:34UA 397	6h 29m	99%	89%
United Details →	OKC 05:04 → IAH 06:40UA 5453 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m Houston	IAH 08:00 → MSP 10:53UA 2469	5h 49m	97%	88%
Southwest Details →	OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:45WN 3111	1h 05m Denver	DEN 07:50 → MSP 10:55WN 3420	4h 50m	95%	88%
United Details →	OKC 09:15 → DEN 10:01UA 1424	3h 41m Denver	DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732	7h 31m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184	59m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090	5h 42m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	OKC 08:26 → SLC 10:07DL 4029 · flown by SkyWest	1h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	6h 14m	96%	85%
American Details →	OKC 08:10 → ORD 10:35AA 6493 · flown by SkyWest	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 13:40 → MSP 15:29AA 4727 · flown by Republic	7h 19m	98%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	OKC 18:02 → DFW 19:15AA 3535 · flown by Envoy	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:04 → MSP 22:26AA 2978	4h 24m	63%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON