Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5364 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 5364 OKC 07:10 → ORD 09:37 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 5844 OKC 17:36 → ORD 20:05 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5364 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 07:10	ORD 09:37	12%	8%	0.9%	87%
AA 6493 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 08:10	ORD 10:35	12%	9%	0.9%	85%
UA 5823 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 08:45	ORD 11:11	14%	8%	0.9%	78%
AA 6204 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 11:04	ORD 13:32	17%	10%	0.9%	74%
AA 6274 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 19:30	ORD 22:00	18%	12%	1.1%	58%
UA 5621 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 12:40	ORD 15:00	19%	10%	0.9%	77%
AA 6519 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 13:42	ORD 16:08	22%	10%	1.0%	72%
UA 5844 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 17:36	ORD 20:05	25%	13%	0.9%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON