Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4201 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 4201 OKC 07:05 → PHX 07:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 3125 OKC 21:45 → PHX 22:00 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4201 Southwest Flight history →	OKC 07:05	PHX 07:25	5%	2%	0.6%	100%
AA 6392 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 08:59	PHX 09:32	12%	8%	0.6%	84%
AA 6517 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 15:20	PHX 15:47	22%	11%	0.6%	76%
AA 6276 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 18:15	PHX 18:42	23%	13%	0.7%	71%
WN 3125 Southwest Flight history →	OKC 21:45	PHX 22:00	32%	12%	0.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON