tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 554 Alaska Flight history → OKC 07:02 SEA 09:00 12% 3% 0.7% 96%
AS 405 Alaska Flight history → OKC 14:55 SEA 16:53 18% 4% 0.7% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:45 → MSP 09:58DL 3844 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889 7h 15m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → SEA 13:35DL 648 9h 46m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:00 → ATL 10:10DL 1158 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 9h 50m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → OKC 05:04 → IAH 06:40UA 5453 · flown by SkyWest 1h 20m Houston IAH 08:00 → SEA 10:47UA 2654 7h 43m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → OKC 08:26 → SLC 10:07DL 4029 · flown by SkyWest 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 6h 23m 97% 80%
SouthwestDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:45WN 3111 1h 00m Denver DEN 07:45 → SEA 09:45WN 1713 5h 40m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → OKC 08:59 → PHX 09:32AA 6392 · flown by SkyWest 2h 00m Phoenix PHX 11:32 → SEA 14:46AA 3440 · flown by Envoy 7h 47m 95% 79%
SouthwestDetails → OKC 05:00 → MDW 06:55WN 3121 3h 45m Chicago MDW 10:40 → SEA 13:10WN 1340 10h 10m 100% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → OKC 12:25 → HOU 13:55WN 4414 50m Houston HOU 14:45 → SEA 17:25WN 3566 7h 00m 73% 45%
SouthwestDetails → OKC 06:20 → LAS 06:50WN 392 50m Las Vegas LAS 07:40 → SEA 10:25WN 739 6h 05m 61% 44%
SouthwestDetails → OKC 19:10 → DEN 20:05WN 1188 1h 05m Denver DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10WN 3856 6h 00m 74% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON