Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3126 at 16:15, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3126 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 16:15	BNA 18:00	25%	6%	0.5%	57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	OMA 06:09 → DEN 06:58UA 1442	1h 02m Denver	DEN 08:00 → BNA 11:42UA 605	5h 33m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → BNA 10:10DL 1155	4h 45m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	OMA 07:01 → ATL 10:12DL 1157	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	4h 29m	96%	87%
Southwest Details →	OMA 08:20 → MDW 09:45WN 4316	1h 35m Chicago	MDW 11:20 → BNA 12:45WN 2733	4h 25m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	OMA 07:55 → STL 09:10WN 3139	2h 15m St Louis	STL 11:25 → BNA 12:35WN 1110	4h 40m	98%	86%
United Details →	OMA 07:55 → ORD 09:45UA 1933	2h 44m Chicago	ORD 12:29 → BNA 14:14UA 3634 · flown by Republic	6h 19m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest	2h 57m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557	6h 38m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	OMA 08:05 → MSP 09:30DL 3512 · flown by SkyWest	3h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BNA 14:52DL 2843	6h 47m	98%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	OMA 16:25 → MDW 17:50WN 4094	50m Chicago	MDW 18:40 → BNA 20:10WN 1073	3h 45m	71%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON