Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1042 OMA 06:20 → CLT 09:58 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3115 OMA 17:03 → CLT 20:41 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1042 American Flight history →	OMA 06:20	CLT 09:58	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
AA 2225 American Flight history →	OMA 13:45	CLT 17:25	15%	4%	0.6%	77%
AA 3115 American Flight history →	OMA 17:03	CLT 20:41	15%	6%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON