Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5608 at 11:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5608 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	OMA 11:00	DCA 14:34	9%	3%	0.6%	84%
WN 4470 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 12:20	DCA 15:45	21%	5%	0.6%	57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OMA 05:25 → MDW 06:50WN 4504	1h 25m Chicago	MDW 08:15 → DCA 11:10WN 2569	4h 45m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest	3h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983	6h 48m	99%	88%
American Details →	OMA 07:00 → ORD 08:51AA 3197	1h 54m Chicago	ORD 10:45 → DCA 13:59AA 4809 · flown by Republic	5h 59m	98%	87%
United Details →	OMA 06:09 → DEN 06:58UA 1442	2h 32m Denver	DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789	7h 50m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136	58m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	5h 02m	96%	85%
American Details →	OMA 05:20 → DFW 07:20AA 2540	1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177	6h 22m	97%	84%
United Details →	OMA 06:15 → IAH 08:37UA 2399	1h 10m Houston	IAH 09:47 → DCA 13:57UA 2670	6h 42m	96%	82%
United Details →	OMA 06:00 → ORD 07:55UA 5611 · flown by SkyWest	2h 05m Chicago	ORD 10:00 → DCA 13:04UA 1381	6h 04m	96%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	OMA 16:58 → DFW 19:01AA 2229	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077	6h 01m	74%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON