Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3127 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 3127 OMA 06:15 → DEN 06:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 1709 OMA 18:10 → DEN 18:55 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3127 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 06:15	DEN 06:50	4%	1%	0.5%	95%
UA 1442 United Flight history →	OMA 06:09	DEN 06:58	4%	2%	0.5%	94%
UA 5594 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 11:30	DEN 12:26	10%	5%	0.5%	92%
UA 2838 United Flight history →	OMA 09:06	DEN 09:55	11%	3%	0.5%	76%
WN 2060 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 10:20	DEN 10:55	12%	2%	0.5%	71%
UA 1195 United Flight history →	OMA 13:48	DEN 14:35	13%	4%	0.6%	85%
UA 5316 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 19:00	DEN 19:58	15%	5%	0.6%	79%
WN 3128 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 13:10	DEN 13:45	18%	4%	0.5%	59%
UA 1943 United Flight history →	OMA 17:27	DEN 18:15	21%	5%	0.6%	71%
F9 1127 Frontier Flight history →	OMA 20:00	DEN 20:50	25%	6%	0.7%	70%
WN 3050 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 19:30	DEN 20:10	31%	6%	0.5%	42%
WN 1709 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 18:10	DEN 18:55	31%	6%	0.5%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON