Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2540 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 2540 OMA 05:20 → DFW 07:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2232 OMA 19:46 → DFW 21:44 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2540 American Flight history →	OMA 05:20	DFW 07:20	5%	2%	0.8%	89%
AA 2899 American Flight history →	OMA 09:53	DFW 11:50	15%	3%	0.8%	82%
AA 2226 American Flight history →	OMA 12:06	DFW 14:00	19%	4%	0.8%	77%
AA 2229 American Flight history →	OMA 16:58	DFW 19:01	25%	6%	0.9%	42%
AA 2232 American Flight history →	OMA 19:46	DFW 21:44	26%	5%	0.9%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON