Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 06:09, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 6227 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 06:00	LAX 07:41	5%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 6278 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 15:46	LAX 17:25	9%	4%	0.5%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OMA 08:05 → MSP 09:30DL 3512 · flown by SkyWest	3h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 13:02 → LAX 14:54DL 1651	8h 49m	98%	87%
United Details →	OMA 06:09 → DEN 06:58UA 1442	3h 04m Denver	DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405	7h 25m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest	1h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	7h 10m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	OMA 07:01 → ATL 10:12DL 1157	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	9h 11m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest	3h 22m Detroit	DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634	10h 10m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	OMA 08:10 → SLC 09:52DL 3874 · flown by SkyWest	1h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	6h 17m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 11:35 → LAX 13:05DL 326	9h 40m	99%	85%
United Details →	OMA 06:15 → IAH 08:37UA 2399	3h 56m Houston	IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460	9h 51m	99%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	OMA 07:38 → SFO 09:28UA 2051	51m San Francisco	SFO 10:19 → LAX 11:57UA 2367	6h 19m	72%	52%
Southwest Details →	OMA 19:30 → DEN 20:10WN 3050	1h 00m Denver	DEN 21:10 → LAX 22:45WN 3110	5h 15m	69%	48%
American Details →	OMA 19:46 → DFW 21:44AA 2232	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:31 → LAX 23:45AA 1504	5h 59m	69%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON