Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2294 at 13:10, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2294 OMA 13:10 → LGA 17:00 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2294 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 13:10	LGA 17:00	30%	6%	0.8%	73%
DL 5295 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	OMA 06:00	LGA 09:56	11%	6%	5.2%	89%
DL 5415 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	OMA 11:32	LGA 15:30	27%	16%	5.1%	73%
DL 5102 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	OMA 17:00	LGA 21:03	29%	15%	15.5%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON