Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5611 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 5611 OMA 06:00 → ORD 07:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1476 OMA 18:40 → ORD 20:34 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5611 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 06:00	ORD 07:55	7%	4%	1.1%	93%
AA 3197 American Flight history →	OMA 07:00	ORD 08:51	8%	3%	1.0%	89%
UA 1933 United Flight history →	OMA 07:55	ORD 09:45	9%	3%	0.8%	94%
UA 600 United Flight history →	OMA 11:23	ORD 13:15	11%	4%	0.7%	80%
AA 3739 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OMA 11:48	ORD 13:42	13%	4%	1.2%	88%
UA 739 United Flight history →	OMA 15:13	ORD 17:05	17%	6%	0.8%	69%
AA 3738 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OMA 19:48	ORD 21:42	17%	5%	1.6%	73%
AA 4724 American flown by Republic Flight history →	OMA 18:26	ORD 20:38	17%	6%	1.2%	72%
UA 5587 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 12:57	ORD 14:50	17%	7%	1.1%	71%
UA 1476 United Flight history →	OMA 18:40	ORD 20:34	22%	6%	0.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON