tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via St Louis, leaving 07:55, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5074 American flown by PSA Flight history → OMA 06:00 PHL 09:56 7% 3% 1.2% 95%
AA 5559 American flown by PSA Flight history → OMA 13:25 PHL 17:21 14% 6% 1.2% 48%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → OMA 05:25 → MDW 06:50WN 4504 2h 10m Chicago MDW 09:00 → PHL 11:55WN 4901 5h 30m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest 3h 48m Minneapolis MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679 7h 43m 99% 91%
SouthwestDetails → OMA 07:55 → STL 09:10WN 3139 50m St Louis STL 10:00 → PHL 13:10WN 3222 4h 15m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:09 → DEN 06:58UA 1442 2h 37m Denver DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575 8h 03m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279 6h 59m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → OMA 08:10 → SLC 09:52DL 3874 · flown by SkyWest 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39DL 2022 8h 29m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest 2h 10m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → PHL 18:04DL 2594 6h 12m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → OMA 05:20 → DFW 07:20AA 2540 1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:40 → PHL 13:02AA 2128 6h 42m 97% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON