Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4835 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4835 OMA 07:20 → PHX 08:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 3137 OMA 21:20 → PHX 22:05 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4835 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 07:20	PHX 08:05	5%	1%	0.5%	93%
AA 4893 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 08:15	PHX 09:12	10%	3%	0.6%	93%
WN 2984 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 12:10	PHX 12:50	18%	3%	0.5%	71%
AA 2227 American Flight history →	OMA 18:00	PHX 18:42	27%	5%	0.7%	73%
WN 3137 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 21:20	PHX 22:05	28%	9%	0.6%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON