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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4905 at 15:45, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4905 Southwest Flight history → OMA 15:45 SAN 16:55 32% 9% 0.6% 42%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest 1h 30m Minneapolis MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121 6h 38m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → OMA 06:15 → DEN 06:50WN 3127 1h 25m Denver DEN 08:15 → SAN 09:40WN 1699 5h 25m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 43m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → OMA 08:05 → MSP 09:30DL 3512 · flown by SkyWest 2h 08m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 7h 19m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → OMA 08:10 → SLC 09:52DL 3874 · flown by SkyWest 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 5h 58m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Detroit DTW 12:30 → SAN 14:09DL 2155 9h 44m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:15 → IAH 08:37UA 2399 3h 23m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 9h 06m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → OMA 07:55 → ORD 09:45UA 1933 3h 15m Chicago ORD 13:00 → SAN 15:25UA 2683 9h 30m 96% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → OMA 20:30 → LAS 21:25WN 2844 50m Las Vegas LAS 22:15 → SAN 23:30WN 2871 5h 00m 69% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON