Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 557 Alaska Flight history →	OMA 06:03	SEA 07:48	6%	2%	0.6%	96%
AS 312 Alaska Flight history →	OMA 15:15	SEA 16:57	13%	3%	0.6%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest	3h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	9h 00m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → SEA 13:35DL 648	10h 10m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	OMA 07:01 → ATL 10:12DL 1157	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	9h 49m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	OMA 08:10 → SLC 09:52DL 3874 · flown by SkyWest	1h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	6h 39m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest	3h 01m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	10h 04m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 08m	99%	81%
Southwest Details →	OMA 06:15 → DEN 06:50WN 3127	55m Denver	DEN 07:45 → SEA 09:45WN 1713	5h 30m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:26 → DTW 13:28DL 4055 · flown by SkyWest	3h 18m Detroit	DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944	10h 16m	99%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	OMA 07:38 → SFO 09:28UA 2051	47m San Francisco	SFO 10:15 → SEA 12:34UA 2192	6h 56m	67%	41%
Southwest Details →	OMA 19:30 → DEN 20:10WN 3050	1h 00m Denver	DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10WN 3856	5h 40m	69%	41%
Southwest Details →	OMA 18:10 → DEN 18:55WN 1709	55m Denver	DEN 19:50 → SEA 21:50WN 1716	5h 40m	67%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON