tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2051 United Flight history → OMA 07:38 SFO 09:28 9% 4% 0.6% 97%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest 3h 39m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 9h 09m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → OMA 11:30 → DEN 12:26UA 5594 · flown by SkyWest 3h 21m Denver DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 8h 00m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 8h 20m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → OMA 09:06 → DEN 09:55UA 2838 2h 30m Denver DEN 12:25 → SFO 14:09UA 1450 7h 03m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → OMA 07:01 → ATL 10:12DL 1157 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 9h 49m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → OMA 17:40 → MSP 19:04DL 3948 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Minneapolis MSP 21:40 → SFO 23:46DL 2089 8h 06m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → OMA 13:48 → DEN 14:35UA 1195 3h 19m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 7h 52m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → OMA 06:20 → CLT 09:58AA 1042 2h 10m Charlotte CLT 12:08 → SFO 14:37AA 1687 10h 17m 99% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON