tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3139 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3139 Southwest Flight history → OMA 07:55 STL 09:10 4% 1% 0.5% 95%
WN 3365 Southwest Flight history → OMA 17:15 STL 18:30 19% 4% 0.5% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → OMA 05:25 → MDW 06:50WN 4504 1h 00m Chicago MDW 07:50 → STL 09:10WN 2900 3h 45m 97% 92%
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest 1h 34m Minneapolis MSP 08:55 → STL 10:28DL 3188 4h 28m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 52m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:09 → DEN 06:58UA 1442 2h 37m Denver DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652 6h 33m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest 3h 00m Detroit DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371 6h 40m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → OMA 08:20 → MDW 09:45WN 4316 3h 15m Chicago MDW 13:00 → STL 14:10WN 2902 5h 50m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → OMA 06:15 → DEN 06:50WN 3127 3h 15m Denver DEN 10:05 → STL 13:20WN 1753 7h 05m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:00 → ORD 07:55UA 5611 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Chicago ORD 10:40 → STL 12:11UA 1355 6h 11m 96% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → OMA 16:58 → DFW 19:01AA 2229 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:55 → STL 21:48AA 1010 4h 50m 71% 50%
UnitedDetails → OMA 15:13 → ORD 17:05UA 739 50m Chicago ORD 17:55 → STL 19:23UA 4412 · flown by GoJet 4h 10m 74% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON