tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 300 at 14:00, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 300 Southwest Flight history → ONT 14:00 AUS 18:50 24% 8% 0.6% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ONT 05:30 → LAS 06:35WN 3150 2h 05m Las Vegas LAS 08:40 → AUS 13:25WN 2830 5h 55m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 05:15 → PHX 06:30WN 864 1h 55m Phoenix PHX 08:25 → AUS 12:45WN 4744 5h 30m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 45m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 6h 20m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → AUS 13:25AA 4095 · flown by Envoy 5h 51m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 1h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest 6h 50m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 1h 25m San Francisco SFO 08:50 → AUS 14:39UA 1326 6h 39m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → ONT 07:00 → DFW 12:09AA 2893 1h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:55 → AUS 15:00AA 3726 · flown by Envoy 6h 00m 96% 81%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 05:50 → DEN 09:05WN 3144 55m Denver DEN 10:00 → AUS 13:20WN 2263 5h 30m 93% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ONT 13:11 → PHX 14:33AA 2244 52m Phoenix PHX 15:25 → AUS 19:43AA 2892 4h 32m 75% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON